Predictions of the future are twofold. They can entertain dystopian or utopian futures leaving reasonable exceptions in between. On the dystopian side, the Fermi Paradox suggests we should have been contacted by an advanced extraterrestrial civilization by now considering the Milky Way Galaxy alone contains anywhere from 100 to 400 billion stars assuming most stars in our galaxy host their own solar system. There are many explanations for this paradox, but one of the most notorious argues technology leads to the inevitable destruction of advanced civilizations where the aliens wipe themselves out before they can make first contact with humans rendering mutually assured destruction inevitable. Such a prediction seems characteristically linear in nature considering the infinite possibilities for “civilizational futures.”
On the other hand, there is the theoretical analogy supporting a “Planetary Manifest Destiny” rendering progress as an inexorable aspect of modernity. Where there is modernity, there is progress, & where there is progress, there is technology on some quantitative scale. It can be further deduced where there is technology, there is sapient life. Since the late 1970s, the work of Soviet-Russian astronomer, the late Nikolai Kardashev, has been popularized by celebrity scientists like Carl Sagan & Michio Kaku since the rise & subsequent dissipation of the space age with the introduction of the Kardashev Scale. Within it, civilizations attain verifiable observability based on their energy consumption. This is broken down into types 1, 2, & 3 respectively. A type 1 civilization harnesses the maximum energy output of its home star. A type 2 civilization derives energy absolutely from its immediate solar system. Finally, a type 3 utilizes the total energy output of its home galaxy.
It has been theorized classification types can potentially exceed type 3, but Kardashev himself believed anything beyond the “type 3 threshold” would surpass anything a civilization could reasonably harness regardless of technological capacity. This leads to a rather innocuous albeit unassuming question: where is mankind on the Kardashev Scale? According to a Cornell University computer science research paper, “Civilization, Energy, & Progression of Mankind on Kardashev Scale,” man weighs in at 0.7276.* Considering the vast developmental disparities undermining any semblance of a “world planetary civilization” as of 2022, our current ranking on the Kardashev Scale is unsurprising, but can we truly imagine the likes of a planetary civilization based on our current geopolitical realities going into 2023? In a world where trillions are spent on national defense budgets annually, it ultimately comes down to a question of binding priorities.
In 2022, the United Nations reported the world has witnessed the greatest number of conflicts since World War Two. Hard facts communicated by such a brutalizing truth makes any semblance of a planetary civilization seem futile. The absolute pragmatists of the world would have us believe such ideals are best left for fringe special interest groups consisting of starry eyed dreamers of a world that could be. The question is: what are the primary impediments to planetary civilization in the foreseeable future? Is it quality of education or the outright lack thereof? Disparities of modern equity in failed state realities in the form of functional infrastructure? Or is it the rise of aggressive misinformation & disinformation campaigns made possible by abuses made in the name of free speech via social media? With no binding supranational cohesion, little can be achieved in the name of “quality of life richness” for mankind where foreign policy interests rule as the de facto principle of international law.
It is always easier to suggest the closest we can get to a planetary civilization will be had in the form of popularized cultural globalization exported by flash material consumerism. The root of the problem rests with human nature in its rawest iteration defined as obsessions with totalizing sociological currencies of power & control. Does human nature stay in step with modernity? Will the liberating benefits of technology inspire man to negate his tribalizing tendencies? When reduced to the core of his existentiality, is man little more than a modern-day caveman turned urbanizing dweller locked in some zero-sum power struggle defined by all or nothing realities? When coming to terms with such questions bordering on the rhetorical, it becomes all too obvious to realize human nature is not without its stark ironies. For the first time in our history, we have never been more literate, medicated, & educated when compared to any previous period in human history.
Yet, what are we doing with the fruits of our modernity turned technological prowess? The sooner we embrace technology as a “golden rule implement” of ethical utility turned inalienable human right, the sooner we can get serious about moving closer to a planetary civilization.
A version of this article is scheduled for publication at UN-Aligned via New Solutions with Omar.
The New Columnist 